全球金融危机对浙江经济影响严重的原因分析——基于浙苏粤三省面板数据的研究

Strong Impact on the Zhejiang Economic Growth Under Financial Crisis:Based on Panel Data Model of Zhejiang,Jiangsu and Guangdong

沿海发达地区浙苏粤三省1988年~2008年的面板数据分析表明,各地经济增长的驱动力差异很大,消费需求驱动力江苏最大,浙江其次,广东最小;投资需求驱动力广东最大,江苏其次,浙江最小;净出口需求驱动力浙江最大,广东其次,江苏最小;从各项需求对经济增长的溢入溢出性来看,浙江的溢入性最大,江苏其次,广东则表现为溢出性。需求驱动力的差异分析较好地解释了在本轮金融危机中浙江经济受影响严重的原因。

This paper uses panel data of Zhejiang,Jiangsu and Guangdong provinces from 1988 to 2008 to analyze the driving force differences of economic growth.The results show that the consumption driving force is highest in Zhejiang,followed by Guangdong and then Jiangsu;the investment driving force is highest in Guangdong,followed by Jiangsu and then Zhejiang;the net export driving force is highest in Zhejiang,followed by Guangdong and then Jiangsu;the spilled-into effect is higher in Zhejiang than Jiangsu,while Guangdong shows spillover effect.This difference in the driving forces is the reason why the finanical crisis has a strong impact on the economic growth in Zhejiang.