太阳黑子活动与沙鼠鼠疫流行

The Sunspot Activity and the Prevalence of Gerbil Plague

本文根据１９０１～１９９３年内蒙古北部荒漠草原区长爪沙鼠鼠疫疫源地的人间鼠疫和动物鼠疫流行资料，分析了太阳黑子活动与鼠疫流行的关系。结果发现：人间鼠疫流行的起始年和动物鼠疫大流行的高峰与太阳黑子活动高峰相一致，其间的８次鼠疫流行均处在太阳黑子活动的高峰期。参考国际太阳活动２２黑子周的预报结果，该地区下一次动物鼠疫大流行可能出现在２１世纪初的２０００～２００２年间。

The relationships between sunspot activities and plague prevalence were analyzed by basing the prevalent data of human plague and epizootic plague in the gerbil plague natural foci of North desert prairie in Inner Mongolia in period of 1901～1993. The results found that the start years of human plague prevalence and the peaks of epizootic plague outbreak were correspond to the peaks of sunspot activities, the 8 times of plague prevalence in this period all were in the peaks of sunspot activities. The next epizootic of plague in this areas will be able to occur in period of 2000～2002 of 21 century based on the forecast results of international sunspot activity of solar cycle 22.