北半球过去2000年气温变化的多尺度分析

Multi-scale Analysis of Northern Hemisphere Temperature Changes over Past Two Millennia

对北半球过去2000a重建气温变化的多尺度分析,发现:(1)北半球过去2000a气温变化存在准6a、准11a、准21a、准43a、准86a、准247a、准914a等7个不同时间尺度的波动,并且以年际变化、年代际变化和近千年周期为主,不只是在数百年尺度上受太阳活动的驱动,在数十年尺度上也受到太阳活动的影响;(2)北半球在中世纪暖期波动幅度较小,小冰期气温振荡幅度相对较大,1400～1800A.D.这400a间是北半球最寒冷的时期;(3)在未来的几十年里,北半球气温的自然波动将极大地减低因人类活动而导致的全球气候变暖效应。

The cyclical climate change and its relationship with solar activity are the hot spot in the international research of paleoclimate and paleoenvironment in recent years. By multi-scale analysis of Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction over the past two millennia, the results were found as follows： （1） Seven different time scales of quasi cycles of 6 yr, 11 yr, 21 yr, 43 yr, 86 yr, 247 yr and 914 yr were evidently discovered. And then interannual variability. Interdecadal climate oscillation and the millennium cycles were mainly fluctuation periods. The climate changes at both the centennial scales and the decadal scales were driven by solar activity. （2） The oscillation amplitude was small in MWP of the Northern Hemisphere, but in LIA the amplitude was relatively larger. The coldest period in the Northern Hemisphere was between 1400 A.D. and 1800 A.D. （3） In the next few decades, the natural fluctuations of Northern Hemisphere temperature will greatly reduce the global warming effect caused by human activities.