我国经济增长因素的边限协整分析

A Bounds-Testing Empirical Study of the Influencing Factors for Economic Growth in China

为了更好地测定我国经济增长和其影响因素之间的关系,在建立了无约束误差修正模型的基础上,运用边限检验方法进行了实证研究。实证结果表明,中国经济增长与其影响因素之间存在长期稳定关系,不同影响因素对中国经济增长有不同的影响。从长期看,劳动力投入、城市化率、非国有化率、资本存量和第一产业比重的影响作用显著,在短期内,劳动力投入、第三产业比重、城市化率和资本存量对中国经济增长都有显著影响。

In order to forecast the relation of economic growth of China and its Influencing factors,based on the unrestricted error-correction model,we have used bounds testing to carry out empirical studies.The results verify that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and its determinants,and the different influencing factors have different impacts on the economic growth in China.In the long run,labor input、urbanization、the rate of non-nationalization、capital stock and the proportion of primary industry have a positive effect on the economic growth;in the short run,labor input、the proportion of the tertiary industry、urbanization and capital stock are found to be significant.