社区健康服务中心诊疗人次变化趋势的指数曲线拟合分析

Analysis of Exponential Curve Fitting about Changing Trend of Numbers Diagnosed and Treated Patients in Community Health Center

目的探讨社区健康服务中心(社康中心)诊疗人次的变化趋势,为社康中心管理决策提供依据。方法应用Excel软件对2003—2008年社康中心的诊疗人次建立指数曲线模型,并预测下一年的诊疗人次。结果建立2003—2008年社康中心诊疗人次的拟合模型为:y=10963e0.3072x,相关指数为R2=0.994,平均误差为3.16%,拟合效果良好,利用此模型外推预测2009年的诊疗人次为94153人次。结论社康中心历年诊疗人次呈明显上升趋势,其变化符合指数曲线模型。利用Excel软件的函数和数据分析工具,为社康中心的统计或计量分析工作带来极大的便利,可为社康中心人力资源的合理配置等管理工作提供科学依据。

Objective To study the changing trend of the number of patients to be diagnosed and treated every year in community health centers （CHS） so as to provide a basis for making decision on CHS. Methods The Excel software was used to establish the exponential curve fitting about the number of patients being diagnosed and treated from 2003 and 2008 in CHS center, and the number of patients to be diagnosed and treated next year was also forecasted. Results The curve fitting model was y = 10963^e0.3072x, correlation exponent was R^2 =0. 994, average error was 3.16%, curve fitting was good. The predicted number of the patients to be diagnosed and treated next year was 94 153 by using this model. Conclusion The number of patients being diagnosed and treated is in an increasing trend, its change is coincident with the exponential curve model. The Excel software analysis stool greatly facilitates statistic and computation analysis in CHS center. It can give a scientific basis to arrange human resource rationally in CHS center.