摘要
根据世界贸易组织(WTO)秘书处最近公布的世界贸易报告概要,由于受世界金融危机和经济衰退的影响,2009年,世界贸易总量经历了70多年来最大的下降,实际降幅达到12.2%,名义降幅则更是高达23%。而2010年世界贸易则有望实际增长9.5%,其中,发达国家的商品出口可能增长7.5%,发展中国家可能增长11%。2009年,中国商品出口尽管也遭遇-16%挫折,但首次取代德国成为世界最大出口国,而进口则独一无二地没有下降,甚至实际上还有小幅增长,中国在世界商品和商业服务的进出口地位均有所上升。不过,世界贸易要真正实现恢复性增长,不仅有赖于世界经济的恢复性增长,还需要借助于WTO多边贸易体制有效抵制贸易保护主义的压力。
The global economic crisis sparked a 12.2% contraction in the volume of global trade （even 23% contraction in value terms）in 2009- the largest such decline in more than 70 years, according to a WTO press release about World Trade Report 2010 issued recently. After the sharpest decline in more than 70 years, world trade is set to rebound in 2010 by growing at 9.5%, according to WTO economists. After the sharpest such contraction, world trade is set to rebound in 2010 by growing at 9.5%, and exports from developed economies are expected to increase by 7.5% in volume terms over the course of the year while shipments from the rest of the world （including developing economies and the Commonwealth of Independent States） should rise by around 11% as the world emerges from recession. The trade forecast to be realized ultimately is not only dependent upon the real recovery of global economy but also upon the effective resist to protectionist pressures through WTO multilateral trading system. It is worth mentioning that although its merchandise exports decreased by 16% in 2009, China had replaced Germany for the first time to be the world＇s largest exporter. China＇s imports did not decline as other countries, which increased slightly actually. Among the world＇s leading exporters and importers in both world merchandise and commercial services, China is now becoming a bigger one.
