中国铁路提速前后规模经济浅析

Discussion on Economies of Scale Before and After China Railway Acceleration

从经济学的投入产出入手,对铁路提速前后的生产情况进行对比后,分析这两个阶段的发展特点及进一步的发展趋势.选取提速前期1986年~1996年与提速后期1997年~2007年铁路运输投入产出数据,对数据运用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数进行回归分析,比较提速前后投入产出以及铁路提速后规模经济的变化情况.从回归结果中可以看出,铁路提速前期的11年生产中,其运输生产存在规模经济;但提速后的11年中,其运输生产的规模经济已不存在.从对比结果上看,尽管铁路提速后的生产没有达到规模经济,但它却是铁路进一步发展的良好开端.

From the economics of input-output theory,the development characteristics of those two stages is analyzed,and the further development trends is discussed after comparing the production situation before and after railway acceleration.China railway input and output data pre-and post-acceleration of 11 years are separately selected,and regression analysis is conducted for the data in Cobb-Douglas production function with input-output and economies of scale show changes before and after acceleration.The regression results show that China railway economies of scale of transportation and production exists in 11 years before the acceleration,but does not existed in the next 11 years after the acceleration.From the comparative points of view,although the economies of scale did not existed after railway acceleration,it is a good start for further development.