高校学生群体隐性危机趋势的预测研究——基于马尔科夫理论的分析与应用

Forecasting the Current of the Latency Mass Undergraduate Crisis - Analysis and Application Based on Markov Chain Theory

运用“大学生群体满意度、压力承受度及其它舆情问卷”对某高校学生群体危机当前状态进行测查，并运用马尔科夫链原理建立“高校学生群体隐性危机转移趋势”的预测模型，以此模型来定量预测高校学生群体危机转移极限概率，从而为高校群体危机管理提供科学依据。实例分析结果表明该预测模型具有一定的参考价值。

The researcher investigated the latency mass undergraduate crisis of a university using the ＂mass under- graduate satisfactions, pressure and others public feelings＂ questionnaire, on this basis, establishing a theory model of the current of the latency mass undergraduate crisis by Markov Chain. The study quantitatively fore-casted the limit transfer probability of the latency mass undergraduate crisis, thus providing a scientific basis for university mass crisis management. The facts show that the predication has some reference values.