岩溶水系统时变特性的系统分析

THE SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS ON THE TIME VARIANT OF KARST GROUNDWATER SYSTEMS

本文针对岩溶水系统的时变特性，通过引入“时变指标序列”和“时变因素”的概念，改进传统的线性时不变模型，提出一种非线性时变模型。理论分析和实际应用表明，模型拟合精度明显提高，更好地刻画了实际系统的结构和输入输出行为。模型中时变因素序列Ｇ（ｔ）有助于分析系统时变的机制和过程。

In order to study the time variant characteristics of karst groundwater systems, a nonlinear time variant model, which is adapted from linear time invariant system model and based upon“time variant index series”and“time variant factors”, is present in this paper. According to the analysis and the application, it is shown that the fitting precision of the model is evidently improved and that the model is much better for describing the structure and input output behaviors of the real system. The time variant factor( G(t)) is helpful to investigating the time variant mechanism and the process of the system.