亚太地区成品油市场特点分析

An analysis on specific features of the Asian-Pacific oil products market

中国成品油市场由供应紧张转变为供应宽裕。预计随着国内新建炼厂的陆续投产,供过于求的趋势仍将延续,寻找外部市场将成为国内生产者实现产销平衡的重要途径。因此,在快速开发国内市场的同时,应眼光向外,关注亚太地区成品油市场。预计未来亚太地区油品需求仍将保持高速增长,但增速趋缓;区内炼油能力过剩突出,炼厂开工率将大幅降低;区域成品油贸易仍将保持活跃,但进出口总量将减少;各经济体的市场化政策对成品油贸易有显著影响。分析认为,为实现均衡生产和保障产销衔接,中国石油企业未来可能需要与国外市场进行品种互换,或向周边市场出口。面对价格竞争压力,目前中国石油企业最切实的做法是提升运营水平,降低炼化、销售和物流的成本,同时加强服务管理,提升品牌建设水平,尽快找到非价格竞争的路径。

China’s oil products market, formerly in tight supply, is now providing amply. According to the analysis, the new refineries that are one by one going into operation and the lasting trend of supply exceeding demand will force oil producers to turn to external markets. This means that in addition to rapidly developing the Chinese domestic market, other possibilities must be taken into account, with special attention on the Asian Pacific oil products market. It is expected that the oil product demand in the Asian Pacific region will maintain rapid growth while gradually slow down; the oil refining capacity in the region will greatly exceed the needs, leading to a dramatic drop of the capacity utilization. The region’s oil product market will still be brisk, but the amount of import and export will markedly decrease. The market policies of economies will exert a notable influence on the oil products trade. Analysts think that in order to achieve a balanced production and an according marketing of products, China’s oil companies might have to exchange products with foreign markets or export to neighboring regions. Faced with a pressure of price competition, the most effective approach of the Chinese oil companies is to upgrade the operating level, lower refining, sales and logistics costs, while enhancing service management, brand building to find the path of nonprice competition as soon as possible.