我国天然气消费的系统动力学预测与分析

Dynamical modeling of natural gas consumption in China

天然气消费的影响因素众多,而以前的预测模型大多只考虑到两三个影响因素,预测结果难以达到准确。在总结前人研究成果的基础上,建立了我国天然气消费预测的系统动力学模型。该模型则对天然气消费进行了行业划分,综合考虑了各行业天然气消费的相关影响因素,从而能够进行更有效的预测。预测结果显示,我国未来天然气消费量将迅速增长,2020年达到1830.0×108m3,2030年达到3027.4×108m3;并且消费结构也将发生巨大变化,主要体现为化工用气、工业燃料用气比例下降,发电用气、第三产业用气比例上升,而居民生活用气比例先升后降。基于此,对我国未来天然气工业的政策提出了建议:加强天然气资源的勘探开发、加快天然气基础设施建设、加快天然气技术创新步伐等。

In order to keep track of natural gas consumption in the near future and present positive proposals for natural gas policies,a dynamical system model,based on the research accomplishments by the predecessors,was developed for natural gas consumption in China.The previously forecasting models built by the predecessors,most of which only took account of two or three influencing factors,can not achieve good results with accuracy;while this newly developed dynamical system model was adopted to effectively predict natural gas consumption by different end uses,thus fully considering all the relevant influencing factors in different sectors.The forecasting results demonstrate that a.natural gas consumption in China will rapidly increase in the near future,the volume of which will be up to 183 bcm in 2020 and 302.74 bcm in 2030;b.the natural gas consumption structure will be altered significantly with the decline in the proportion of end use for industrial fuels and the chemical industry,with the sharp rise in the proportion of end use for electric power and the tertiary industry,and with the rise first and then the decline in the proportion of end use for the residential.Through comparison analysis,we found that these forecasting results are relatively reasonable,so in view of this,we present the following proposals for future natural gas industry:a.natural gas resources should be further explored and exploited;b.the infrastructure of natural gas development should be fastened up;and c.technical innovation should be stimulated and encouraged to a high degree.