气候变化对青海高原植被演变的影响分析

An Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Vegetation Succession in Qinghai Province

根据青海省1961-2007年的气候变化趋势,以1987年为界分为两个时段,用综合顺序分类法划分1961-1987年时段和1988-2007年时段青海省植被类型;依据CO2倍增时气温和降水的变化量,模拟了未来气候条件下,CO2倍增时青海省植被类型的演变趋势.结果表明:大部分地区每个阶段的植被类型都是朝着暖干化的方向发展,并且随着气候暖干化的发展,植被类型逐渐减少.

Owing to climate change,vegetation distribution has correspondingly changed under constant warming. The changing tendency of climate in Qinghai Province is analyzed,based on the meteorological data of fifty meteorological stations from 1961 to 2007. It is found that the climate difference pre-and post-1987 was relatively pronounced. The temperature increasing rate was 0.16 ℃·（10a）-1 before 1987,while it was 0.64 ℃·（10a）-1 after 1987. The changing rate of precipitation was 0.14 mm·（10a）-1 before 1987,while it was 3.92 mm·（10a）-1 after 1987. The vegetation distribution was studied according to the comprehensive and sequential classification. There were thirteen types from 1961 to 1987 and eleven types from 1988 to 2007. The changing tendency of types from 1988 to 2007 compared with the types from 1961 to 1987 was characterized by warming and drying. When CO2 doubled,the temperature will be higher,but precipitation increase will be obscure. Vegetation types will decrease to nine,and the climate changing tendency will be warming and drying mainly. The analysis above shows that vegetation types will be decreasing following the tendency of climate warming and drying.