基于Panel Data的高速公路事故预测模型

Highway Accidents Statistical Analysis With Panel Data Model

使用Panel Data模型进行不同路段交通事故的统计回归,可以识别路段样本间的固有差异以及未观测到的变量影响.作者介绍了个体固定效应模型和随机效应模型的建立过程和相关检验,并以京津塘高速为例,分别建立了一般混合回归模型、个体固定效应模型和随机效应模型,通过Hausman检验比较模型效果,最终得出个体固定效应模型更加合理、适合于高速公路事故分析的结论.

Models,which employ panel data analysis to model highway crashes,can identify fixed differences and other unobserved factors in real world.This paper introduces process of individual fixed-effects and random-effects models and related tests.These models are applied to Jingjintang highway.Pool data regression,models of fixed effects and random effects are established respectively.Hausman results show that fixed-effect model is better than others when describing the relationship between accidents and other factors.