我国城镇居民收入、消费与失业率之间关系的实证研究

The Positive Research on the Relationship among Income of Chinese Urban Residents,Consumption and Rate of Unemployment

运用协整理论,对我国城镇居民人均可支配收入、人均消费支出和失业率之间的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明:1978-2008年,我国城镇居民的消费与收入、消费与失业率、收入与失业率之间具有协整关系,居民的消费主要取决于居民的收入;消费与收入之间不存在格兰杰因果关系,而失业率分别是收入、消费的格兰杰原因。我国城镇居民的消费受到收入的重要影响,要想提高居民的生活消费水平,增加他们的可支配收入是一个最根本的途径,但旨在增加他们收入的短期性政策,其效果并不明显,要从根本上建立长效机制,改善消费环境、加快商品物流和信息流通、更新消费观念等,特别是加强社会保障制度的建设。

This article conducts a positive research on the relationship among income of Chinese urban residents, consumption and rate of unemployment by making using of co integration theory. The result shows that there are co integration relationship between the consumption and income of Chinese urban residents, consumption and rate of unemployment, income and rate of unemployment, and the consumption of residents is determined by their income. There are no Granger causality between consumption and income, but rate of unemployment is Granger cause of income and consumption. To improve the life consumption level of residents, the essential way is to increase their disposable income through the establishment of long - term mechanism, the improvement of consumption environment, speeding up commodity logistics and information circulation, updating ideas and strengthening the construction of social security system.