基于广义加权组合预测法的建设用地需求预测——以苏州市为例

Prediction of Construction Land-use Based on a Combined Forecasting Model——Taking Suzhou City as an Example

对现行采用的多种常用建设用地需求量预测方法进行了比较,并以苏州市为例,采用5种预测模型进行了对比分析,利用近13年的统计数据进行了验证。结果表明,广义加权组合预测法得到的结果误差最小、精度最高。

Predictive methods of the quantity of construction land demand were analyzed systemically. Based on construction land- use status quo for Suzhou City,this paper applied five kinds of forecast methods to contrast the data of recent 13 years,and verified them. The results demonstrated that the combined forecasting model based on optimal weighted method was better than a single method.