一种基于风险因子的供应链模型分析

Analysis of Supply Chain Model Based on Risk-Paramenters

在分析供应链风险管理方法的基础上,将现代控制理论的控制方法和思想用于系统动力学风险控制模型的分析,并分析系统在各种风险因子的波动和突变下的变化.通过调节供应链系统的策略模式和参数设置,定量地对系统的风险抵抗能力进行优化,有目的地规避某些极端情况的发生,达到风险预警与控制的目的.通过仿真,定量地分析了送货提前期、信息延迟日常波动及预测参数主观波动时系统的状态,当预测参数变化时,供应商和生产商成本及库存的变化.

Based on the analysis of supply chain risk management,a new method combining the control system and system dynamics were given.The system＇s feedback was discussed when the risk parameters undulate or mutate.The causal loop diagram and system dynamics model were developed based on the analysis of the process and the mechanism of supply chain.The system cost and the dynamic response of different lead time and forecast parameters were quantitatively studied.The results showed that the cost and inventory of both producer and vender are changed while the forecast parameters are changed.