金融风险财政化与经济增长——模型分析与实证检验

Fiscalization of Financial Risk And Economic Growth——Model Analysis And Empirical Test

金融风险财政化不仅会对财政支出形成压力,直接造成财政赤字缺口的拉大,而且还会助长金融市场上各类行为主体的机会主义心理,持续酝酿更深层次的金融风险。由此宏观经济风险必然会被大幅度地向上推动,使得各类经济主体的风险增大,从而经济增长亦因此而受到抑制。这个论断不仅得到模型的证明,而且还可以得到基于中国1978～2007年间数据协整分析的支持。

The fiscalization of financial risk not only broadens the deficit gap directly by clamping downing the fiscal expenditure,but also stimulates the opportunism of all kinds of doers on the financial market,whick would continue to brew more financial risk.By so doing,the macro-economic risk would be upgraded seriosly and all economic doers would be confronted with more economic risk,so the conomic growth would be restrained.This conclusion would not only be proved in a model,but also supported by analysis of cointegration based upon Chinese data in the period from 1978 to 2007.