关于我国社会消费品零售总额持续增长的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on the Sustainable Growth of China’s Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods

社会消费品零售总额是衡量人们消费水平的重要指标,也是国民经济体系中的一个重要指标。因此,分析研究社会消费品零售总额受哪些因素的影响,以及各因素对社会消费品零售总额的影响力的大小,对于处在转型期的中国经济良性发展具有重要的意义。从模型的假定、参数的估计以及各种检验方式得出结论:只有收入和消费能保持很好的线性相关性,在目前经济情况下,要刺激消费,关键在于提高居民的人均可支配收入。

The total retail sales of consumer goods is an important index by which to measure,still a invaluable index in the national economic system. Therefore,it is quite meaningful for us to study on which factors can affect the total retail sales of consumer goods and the degree that every factor can affect it,especially for China’s benign development during the transformational period. This thesis draws a conclusion through the assumption of model,the estimation of parameters and various methods of test： only income and consumption can maintain fine linear correlation,while under current economic situations,in order to stimulate consumption,it is key to enhance per capita disposable income of our citizen.