环境污染与经济发展关系的定量分析——以新疆为例

A Quantitative Analysis of Relationship Between Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth

本文在VAR模型估计的基础上,采用格兰杰因果分析方法来分析经济增长与环境污染之间的相互作用,并运用预测方差分解技术来进一步考察两者在解释对方变动时的相对重要性。结果表明,新疆的经济增长与某些污染物排放之间确实存在着显著的因果关系,但这种关系的滞后期是不同的,并且环境污染对经济增长的影响作用要弱些。

Based on VAR Model, the paper uses Grant Casual analysis to analyze the interaction between economic growth and environmental pollution. And what＇ s more, it also uses predicted deviation to further explore comparative significance respectively. The findings proves that there is significant cause and effect relation between economic growth and pollutants emission in Xinjiang, however, the effect of environmental pollution of economic growth is weaker.