扩大覆盖面与养老金三元悖论:经验与理论分析

Coverage Expansion and Pension Trilemma:An Empirical and Theoretical Analysis

在理想模型下,养老金制度的三个主要目标即充足性、覆盖面、财务可持续性之间存在相互制约的三角关系。具体地说,养老金的充足性越高,则覆盖面越低;充足性越高,越需要政府转移支付;政府转移支付越多,越有利于覆盖面的扩大。笔者从拉美国家的经验、理论分析以及我国新农合的实践三个方面对"养老金三元悖论"进行了系统有力的论证。

In the next ten years, China＇s pension system should include additional 400 million to 500 million labor force to achieve its goal of full coverage by 2020. This is a great realistic problem we are now facing. Unlike general policy research, the author proposes a new theoretical viewpoint - impossible trinity theory in pension system. In an ideal model, adequacy, coverage, and financial sustainability form an impossible triangle. The three goals of pension system can affect each other. That is, the higher the adequacy is, the lower the coverage is; the higher the adequacy is, the more government transfer payment needs; and more government transfer payment will help to expand the coverage. The authors combine the experiences of Latin American countries and New Rural Cooperation Medical System in China with theoretical analysis, to make systematic and strong demonstrations of the impossible triangle. And the conclusion is of great significance for China＇s pension coverage expansion and pension system reform.