人民币汇率、出口贸易与经济增长——基于中美、中日双边贸易的比较分析

RMB Exchange Rate,Export Trade and Economic Growth: a Comparative Study Based on Sino-US and Sino-Japanese Bilateral Trades

以中美、中日1994—2007年的双边贸易数据为基础,建立人民币汇率、出口贸易和经济增长的联立方程模型,研究三者之间的作用机制。研究结果表明:人民币汇率贬值通过扩大出口促进经济增长,而经济增长和出口导致人民币实际汇率升值,符合巴拉萨效应;出口与经济增长之间的ELG假说成立,而GLE假说不成立;中美贸易的参数检验效果明显优于中日贸易。为此,应采取稳定出口,促进消费、投资和出口协调发展;优化贸易结构,提升贸易竞争力;合理控制人民币波动幅度,加快人民币国际化进程等政策措施。

This paper aims at explore the relationship between RMB exchange rate,export trade and economic growth through a Simultaneous Equations Model based on the Sino-US and Sino-Japanese bilateral trade data during the period from 1994 to 2007.Results of the study indicate that： depreciation of RMB exchange rate promotes economic growth through export expansion,which conforms to Balassa-Samuelson Effect;the ELG hypothesis between export and economic growth stands valid while the GLE hypothesis does not;the parametric test using Sino-US bilateral trade data is of greater significance than that using Sino-Japanese trade data.The empirical results call for future policies aimed at promoting balanced development between consumption,investment and export based on steady export growth,optimizing composition of foreign trade for stronger trade competitiveness,and exercising reasonable control over the fluctuation margins of RMB exchange rate to accelerate the internationalization process of RMB.