中国城市生猪规模养殖模式的生产率变动分析

An Analysis on Change of Productivity Analysis of Chinese Urban Pig Scale Breeding Pattern

运用基于两阶段DEA的Malmquist生产率指数模型,分析2001—2008年中国城市生猪规模养殖模式的全要素生产率指数,得出结论:全国城市TFP增长率总体上呈"V"状,平均增长率为负;技术进步效率退化是造成生产率负增长的主要因素;产业风险是造成生产率剧烈波动的根本原因。提出建议:因地制宜,合理布局;品种引进,品种选育;技术培训,科学饲养;生猪保险,生猪期货。

In this paper,with a two-stage DEA-based Malmquist productivity index model,we calculate and analyze the TFP index of Chinese urban pig scale breeding pattern from 2001 to 2008,and obtain some conclusions： the change trend of TFP growth rate of Chinese urban pig scale breeding pattern is ＂V＂,and the average growth rate is negative;the degradation of technological progress efficiency has become the major factor in negative growth of TFP;the volatility of TFP growth rate is fundamental result by industry risk.Based on these,we make some policy suggestions： rationally distributing;importing and breeding new species;technically training and scientifically breeding;pig insurance and future.