陕西省税收与经济增长关系的协整分析

The Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between Tax Revenue and Economic Growth: the Case of Shaanxi Province

基于税收与经济增长的相关理论和陕西省1994—2007年税收与GDP的相关数据,对税收收入与GDP历史数据进行平稳性检验、格兰杰检验和协整检验,建立陕西省税收与GDP的误差修正模型。研究结果表明:陕西省的税收与GDP存在长期的协整关系,并且从模型可知,当GDP增长1%时,陕西省税收增长1.286 823%;经济增长是税收增长的格兰杰原因,但是税收不是GDP的格兰杰原因。

The paper analyzed the relationship and the historical data between revenue and economic growth based on theory and stationary test,Granger and co-integration test from 1994 till 2007 in Shaanxi Province,established error correction model according to revenue and the GDP in Shaanxi Province.The results show that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between tax revenue and the GDP in Shaanxi Province,from the model we can see tax revenue grew 1.286 823 percent when the GDP grew 1 percent.Economic growth is Granger reason for tax revenue growth,but tax revenue is not the cause of Granger GDP.