雪野水库洪水风险管理研究

A Study of Flood Risk Management of Xueye Reservoir

随着经济的发展和社会的进步,城市水资源缺乏的问题日益严重。运用漫坝风险分析理论,综合考虑影响漫坝的洪水、风浪、库容、泄水能力四方面的不确定性,建立了雪野水库大坝对抗洪水系列与风浪系列联合作用下的漫坝风险模型,对雪野水库漫坝安全做出评价。结合下游河道的泄洪能力、淹没范围等具体情况,通过风险计算及分析比较,提出了相应的水库优化调度方案,使水库在不增加工程投资的情况下,调蓄能力增加了1988万m3,提高了水库的经济效益和社会效益。

With the development of economy and the society,the deficit in water resources has increasingly arisen in many cities.Considering thoroughly the uncertainties of flood,wind,reservoir storage and discharge capacity,a risk model for the dam of Xueye Reservoir is established in the paper by using the theory of overtopping risk analysis against simultaneous actions of flood series and wind wave series during flood period thereby a evaluation of overtopping safety of Xueye Reservoir is made.Besides,in order to utilize efficiently the valuable water resources（including flood water resources） upstream of Xueye Reservoir,some new regulation schemes are recommended by the author through careful computations and thorough comparisons according to the downstream discharge capacity and related area to be drowned.Thus,more remarkable economic returns and social benefits will be obtained in the case of no increase in engineering investment and with an increase of 19.88 million m3 in regulation and storage capacity.