两岸贸易与台湾经济增长关系的协整分析

A Co-integration Analysis of the Relationship Between Cross-strait Trade and Economic Growth of Taiwan

根据1988-2008年的经济数据,利用协整和Granger因果检验方法,对两岸贸易与台湾经济增长的关系进行实证分析。研究表明,台湾经济增长与两岸贸易及其进出口构成存在长期稳定的关系;两岸贸易明显促进了台湾经济增长;对大陆出口有力推动了台湾经济增长,自大陆进口则起抑制作用。

According to the economic data during 1988 to 2008,empirical analysis is made of the relationship between cross-strait trade and economic growth of Taiwan by employing the measurement of co-integration and granger causality tests.The research indicates that there exists a long-term stable relationship between Taiwan＇s economic growth and cross-strait trade and its constitution;cross-strait trade contributed significantly to Taiwan＇s economic growth;the export to Chinese mainland is a strong impetus to Taiwan＇s economic growth,while import from the mainland play the role of inhibition.