中国工业SO_2排放量动态变化分析

Dynamic change of industrial sulphur dioxide emission in China

中国工业SO2减排工作的重点。经济增长、经济空间结构变化、技术进步是影响污染物排放量变化的三个重要因素。在分析我国工业SO2排放量、排放结构、排放强度等变化趋势的基础上,通过构建对数平均权重分解模型定量分解经济增长、结构变化、技术进步这3个因素对工业SO2排放量变化的贡献。结果表明:(1)中国工业SO2排放量年均增长48.7×104 t,年均增长率为3.2%,且2002—2006年增速加快;(2)分地区看,1991年以来,东部地区SO2排放量所占比重明显下降,中部地区略有上升,而西部地区所占比重增加显著;(3)单位产值工业SO2排放强度在研究期内迅速降低,年均下降幅度为8.4%,对减缓SO2排放量的过快增长起到了积极作用;(4)经济增长平均每年促进SO2排放量增长183.7×104 t,技术进步则平均每年使SO2排放量减少134.2×104 t,空间结构因素平均每年减少SO2排放量0.8×104 t。可以看出,长期以来,虽然我国的技术水平有了一定程度提高,但经济规模的扩张使中国工业SO2排放量持续增长,对中国环境压力形成了巨大压力,同时,经济总量在不同地区的分配对SO2排放量的影响也在不断变化中。

The focus of sulphur dioxide reduction was industrial sulphur dioxide.As is known,economic development,economic space structure and technology progress were three main factors which affected pollutant emission.The tendency of industrial sulphur dioxide emission,emission structure and emission intensity were showed firstly.Then,a model of Logarithmic Mean Weight Divisia Method was applied to analyze the effects of the three factors.The main results could be summarized as follows： ① The average annual growth rate of industrial sulphur dioxide emission was 12.68%.Whereas,the growth rate accelerated during the period of 2002 to 2006.② The percentage of eastern China had declined,while middle China and western China had increased,especially western China.③ The industrial sulphur dioxide emission intensity in China had decreased rapidly during the study period with the reduction rate of 8.4%.The decline of industrial sulphur dioxide emission intensity made a great contribution to the reduction of sulphur dioxide.④ The average growth of industrial sulphur dioxide emission was 48.7×10^4 t,thereinto,the scale of economic development,the space structure and emission intensity had different contributions to the change,being 183.7×10^4 t,-134.2×10^4 t,-0.8×10^4 t respectively.For a long time,the technology had made a certain extent progress,however,the economic scale was increasing and the proportion of Industrial output in three zones was changing.All of these made the industrial sulphur dioxide emission maintain a continuous increasing tendency in China and had caused great pressure on environment at the same time.