我国森林碳汇核算的计量模型研究

An accounting model for forest carbon sinks in China

为了更好地对我国森林碳汇进行研究和管理,促进碳汇市场的发展,本文在经济控制理论的基础上,收集了1990—2007年林木蓄积量、生长量、枯损量和采伐量的数据,通过蓄积量转换法建立了森林碳汇核算的回归模型,并进行了分析。结果表明,相邻年份的森林生物碳储量C(k+1)、C(k)回归方程的拟合优度R2=0.998,调整后R2=0.997,模型的F值为6581.48,对应的P值为0.00,表明模型成立并具有统计学意义。在此基础上,利用最小值法进一步求出了森林碳汇的最优核算价格为10.11～15.17美元/t,略高于目前国际上通用的碳税价格。本文通过计算还指出,要使我国森林由于经济发展而采伐消耗的碳储量最小,每年应采伐消耗的蓄积为4.26亿m3,这一结果对我国的森林资源管理提出了更高的要求。最后,本文对碳汇核算存在的一些问题进行了讨论,并建议碳汇核算应采用影子价格,把社会、经济发展对碳汇的影响,即人类社会、经济活动对森林碳汇的影响纳入核算范围,促进碳汇市场的持续发展。

In order to better understand forest carbon sinks and promote the development of carbon sinks market in China,we collected data on forest stock,growth,decline and harvest from 1990 to 2007,and established an accounting model for forest carbon sinks,based on economic cybernetics using a forest stock-converted method.The results show that forest carbon sinks in adjacent years was highly linearly correlated（R^2 = 0.998,P 0.001）.Using a minimum value method,we found the optimal price of forest carbon sinks in China to be $ 10.11-15.17 per ton of carbon,which is slightly higher than the international carbon price at present.The maximum volume of forest harvesting due to consumption of carbon reserves was 426 million m^3 per year,suggesting a high requirement for the management of forest resources.Finally,we discussed some issues in the carbon sink accounting,and the necessity of including shadow prices in the model.The impact of social and economic development on carbon sinks should be considered to promote the sustainable development of carbon sinks market in China.