2011年第26届世界大学生运动会海上基地选址的气象条件分析

ANALYSIS OF METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR THE BASE OF MARINE SPORTS IN THE 26^(th) SUMMER UNIVERSIADE IN SHENZHEN IN 2011

在分析深圳50多年来8月高影响天气的基础上,利用自动气象站网和海上实时观测资料,用数理统计和数值模拟的方法,对海上基地三个选址方案:桔钓沙、沙鱼涌和官湖海域的风环境场进行对比,重点分析首选方案桔钓沙海区域的8月风场变化情况,为2011年世界大学生运动会海上基地选址提供科学依据。结果表明:桔钓沙海域风速比陆地大,平均风速>3 m/s,极大风速<20 m/s的概率>90%,风向摆角符合赛事要求的概率>80%,说明桔钓沙海域风环境能够满足海上赛事的要求;通过对典型形势场数值模拟,桔钓沙海域的风速比沙鱼涌和官湖海域大,且风向稳定,风向摆动小,在三个待选方案中为最佳方案。另外,分析还发现桔钓沙海域海陆风效应明显,比赛安排在10—17时更适宜。

Based on the real-time wind direction and speed data from an automatic meteorological monitoring network in Shenzhen, the wind characteristics of Jue Diaosha maritime area are analyzed. As indicated in the results, the wind speed of Jue Diaosha sea area is higher than over the land, the average wind speed is above 3 rn/s and the probability of the maximum wind speed below 20 m/s is above 90%. Moreover, the probability of the hourly swinging angle of wind direction under 50 ~ is above 80%, suggesting the wind conditions in the Jue Diaosha area could meet the requirements of the match. According to the numerical simulation, this area is the best selected site among three candidates. Furthermore, the characteristics of daily land and sea breeze are such that it is suggested the game will be better carded out from 10：00 to 17： 00.