城市居民出行方式结构的定量分析—以广州市为例

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS ON THE STRUCTURE OF TRIP MODES OF URBAN RESIDENTS:A CASE STUDY OF GUANGZHOU

本文以广州市居民出行数据为例,用威弗结合指数定量分析城市居民出行方式结构的特征,并用一组回归方程显示主要的影响因素。结果表明:广州市居民出行方式结构是一个'以步行、自行车、公共汽车为主'的三元结构;出行因子、社会经济因子城市布局因子、公共交通因子、私人交通因子和政策因子是影响这个结构的相关因子,它们的相互联系和综合影响,制约着城市居民选择出行方式。因此,宜用系统的办法调整不合理的出行方式结构。目前广州市要重视人行交通和大力发展公共交通,并以道路分流、空间分流、时间分流和还路于车的'三分一还'策略解决交通拥挤和事故问题。

The purpose of the paper is to describe quantitatively the characteristics of the structure of trip modes of urban residents and to analyze what and how the correlative factors affecting the structure are, taking Guangzhou as an example.Based on the data of Guangzhou's resident trips, all of the trip modes in the city are divided into seven types: bus, ferry, taxi, motorcycle, unit car, bicycle and walk. Measured by the Weaver's combination index, the general structure of trip modes of the Guangzhou's residents is most nearly to a three-component structure based on walk/bicycle/bus. By using the multivariate analysis of correlation and setting up nine regression equations, the results show that the correlative factors affecting the structure of trip modes are trip, socio-economy, urban layout, public transportation, private transportation and transport policies. These six factors are interrelated and interacted to press urban people to choose the trip mode from all modes. Therefore,it is suiltable to apply the systematic methods to adjusting the irrational structure of trip modes. At present the walk-mode transport should be laid stress on and the public transportation should be given great efforts to develop in Guangzhou City. A strategy of the traffic flow diversion on roads, spaces and time, and returning the roads to vehicles should be carried out so as to solve the problems of crowded traffic and transport accidents.