湖北省耕地变化与粮食生产的特征分析

Arable Land Change and Grain Production in Hubei Province

耕地资源是保障粮食安全及社会稳定的基石。在分析湖北省1978—2008年耕地面积和粮食产量变化的基础上,进一步分析了最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数的变化特点;采用GM(1,1)方法对未来10a耕地、人口、粮食产量、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数进行了预测。结果表明:(1)1978年来,湖北省人均耕地面积和人均粮食产量不断减少,最小人均耕地面积总体变化呈波浪式降低而耕地压力指数呈波浪式上升。(2)未来10a,最小人均耕地面积将逐年降低而耕地压力指数将逐年升高,人均耕地面积降低速度快于实际最小人均耕地面积的降低速度,耕地面积难以保证粮食生产安全。并对此提出了相关建议。

Arable land resource is the cornerstone of ensuring food security and social stability. The article analyzes the changes of cultivated area and grain production and the variant characteristics of minimum percapita cultivated land area and pressure index in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2008. It also forecasts arable land area, population, food output, minimum per-capita cultivated land area, and land pressure index in the next 10 years by using GM （1,1） method. Results show that （1） Since 1978, the per-capita arable land area and per-capita food production have declined, yet minimum per capita arable land area has generally decreased and cultivated land pressure index is on growth fluctuation. （2） In the next 10 years, minimum per-capita ar- able land area will gradually decrease and pressure index will increase year by year. Furthermore, the declination speed of per-capita arable land will be faster than that of minimum per-capita arable land.