近五百年广东降水量序列重建的尝试

AN ATTEMPT TO REESTABLISH PAST 500 YEAR SERIES OF GUANGDONG RAINFALL

本文首先对广州、汕头近五百年旱涝等级资料进行增补,然后利用这些连续的等级序列和广州(88年)、汕头(108年)近百年的降水量(年和雨季降水量)资料,通过相关分析和周期分析,估算出近五百年的年和雨季降水量(具有五年滑动平均意义)。检验结果表明:无论是拟合程度、统计性质还是周期性均令人满意。这是重建广东历史降水量序列的初次尝试。

First, the past 500 year data of grades of wetness is augmented for Guangzhou and shantou. Then, correlation and periodicity analyses are made with the continuous series and rainfall reports from Guangzhou and Shantou (88 and 108 years in Length, respectively) to estimate yearly and season rainfall (5 year running mean). Verification shows satisfactory fitness, statistic (average and variance) and periodic performance. The work is a preliminary attempt in reestablishing historic rainfall series for Guangdong.