信贷退出的产业结构优化效应研究

Optimization Effect of Credit Withdrawal on Industrial Structure

基于1999～2008年的数据，利用协整分析和格兰杰（Granger）因果检验法，选择中国工商银行江西省分行公司贷款余额来表示信贷退出的指标，对银行信贷退出对产业优化升级的影响进行实证研究。结果表明：信贷退出对产业结构调整具有十分重要的作用，推动了产业结构的优化升级，实施信贷退出后信贷结构发展的方向与产业结构升级的方向是一致的，银行信贷退出对产业结构优化升级具有长期稳定的线性关系，信贷退出是产业结构优化率提高的格兰杰成因。但是，我们也不能将产业结构调整的任务都系于银行信贷退出机制的完善和信贷结构的调整上。

By using the data from 1999 to 2008, cointegration analysis and Granger Causality Test, the paper empirically analyzes the influence of credit withdrawal on the industrial optimization and upgrade, and the balance of loans of ICBC Jiangxi Branch is used to reflect credit withdrawal. The results show that credit withdrawal significantly influences the adjustment of industrial structure and pushes forward the optimization and upgrade of industrial structure. The development direction of credit structure after implementing credit withdrawal is in line with that of the upgrade of industrial structure. There is a long-term and stable linear relationship between bank＇s credit withdrawal and the optimization and upgrade of industrial structure, and the former is the Granger cause of the improvement of the latter. However, the adjustment of industrial structure should not fully rely on the improvement of credit withdrawal mechanism and the adjustment of credit structure.