财政支出与全社会固定资产投资:基于中国的实证研究

The Relationship between the Fiscal Expenditure and the Investment in All Social Fixed Assets in a Nation: a Study Based on the Case of China

固定资产投资是中国经济增长的重要影响因素,而作为我国宏观经济调控重要手段之一的财政政策对全社会固定资产投资的影响一直未有定论。因此,本文从固定资产投资的资金来源入手,实证研究国家财政预算内资金、企事业单位自筹资金与货币供给、工业品销售率以及银行间7天拆借利率之间的动态关系。通过分析我国经济制度方面的识别条件,本文构建五因素的SVAR模型。计量结果表明,政府投资对私人部门投资的影响并不显著,私人部门投资对总需求变动敏感,政府投资通过影响总需求会对私人部门投资产生影响,从而揭示了政府投资对私人部门投资的影响路径。

The investment in fixed assets(IIFA) is an important element in China's economic growth.However,there has been no agreement about the effects of the fiscal policy,one of the important devices to adjust and control China's macro-economy,on the investment in all social fixed assets.Starting from the source of the capital for the IIFA,we have,in this paper,made a case study on dynamic relationship among the state fiscal budget fund,the fund from companies,the money supply,the sale rate of industrial products,and 7-day call loan rate among banks.With an analysis of the identification of China's economic system,we have constructed a five-factor SVAR model,The results of our calculation indicate that the impact of the government investment on the investment of private sectors(IOPS) is not conspicuous,that the IOPS is sensitive to the change in the aggregate demand,and that the government investment impacts on the IOPS by means of the effect on the aggregate demand,thus revealing the way to the impact of the government investment on the IOPS.