上海市近地面臭氧污染的健康影响评价

Health impact assessment of surface ozone pollution in Shanghai

根据2008年上海市环境保护部门的每日24h近地面臭氧监测数据,以每日最大8h(11:00～18:59)的臭氧浓度均值作为上海市居民的平均暴露水平,以该年上海市的全部常住人口作为臭氧暴露人口,计算近地面臭氧污染对上海市居民的健康影响和相关的健康经济损失.2008年上海市近地面臭氧每日最大8h的年平均水平为88μg/m3,其中市区为78μg/m3,市郊区为96μg/m3.结果表明,近地面臭氧污染可以导致上海市居民1892(95%CI:589～3540)例早逝和26049(95%CI:13371～38499)例住院,全年的归因健康经济损失为32.42(95%CI:10.80～59.23)亿元,其中由早逝引起的损失占总健康经济损失的88.12%.提示近地面臭氧污染已对上海市居民产生了较大的健康损失和经济损失.

Based on the monitoring data of surface ozone in Shanghai in 2008,the daily maximum 8h（11：00～18：59）concentrations were averaged to represent the population-level ozone exposure level.All fixed residents living in Shanghai were the supposed affected population.In 2008,the annual average 8h maximum ozone concentration was 88μg/m3,and the ozone level in the central urban areas was lower than that in suburban areas （78μg/m3 versus 96μg/m3 respectively）.It was estimated that 1892 （95% confidence intervals,95%CI：589～3540） premature deaths and 26049 （95%CI：13371～38499） cases of hospital admission were attributable to surface ozone pollution in 2008 in Shanghai.The corresponding economic loss of ozone-related health impacts was roughly 3.24 （95%CI：1.08～5.92） billion Yuan,88.12% of which was due to premature deaths.Our analysis suggests that the surface ozone pollution has brought substantial health and economic loss to Shanghai residents.