应用蒙特卡罗模拟法的电力变压器热特性绝缘寿命评估

Insulation Life Assessment of Power Transformer Thermal Characteristics Using Monte Carlo Simulation

传统以聚合度、糠醛等对变压器绝缘寿命评估方法现场采样困难,而变压器热特性含有丰富的绝缘寿命状态信息。为此,提出了应用蒙特卡罗模拟法的变压器绝缘寿命评估模型。通过对变压器绝缘寿命的重要性影响因素的历史监测数据的统计分析,模拟了其变化过程。模型考虑了负载系数和环境温度的相关性及变压器含水量变化对绝缘寿命损失的影响,其寿命评估值更符合实际情况。最后,通过对某台实际运行变压器在有无负载增长情况下的绝缘寿命评估,验证了模型的有效性。

Traditional insulation life assessment method for power transformer such as polymerization degree actually becomes impracticable because of the sampling difficulties. However,the transformer thermal characteristics contain rich insulation life status information. Under such backgrounds,insulation life assessment model based on Monte Carlo simulation method for power transformer was put forward. Through statistical analysis of history data which had an important influence on transformer insulation life,the change process was simulated. Meantime,the correlativity of load factor and environment temperature,the impact of transformer moisture content change on insulation life loss were considered in the life assessment model. Finally,through the insulation life assessment of an operational station which has or hasn＇t load growth,the model validity was verified.