利用小世界网络的电力变压器风险评估方法

Risk Assessment of Power Transformer Using Small-world Network

对设备进行风险评估,可以得到设备的高风险故障模式,为采取预防维修降低风险,保证设备可靠运行提供了有利保证。为此,从复杂网络的角度对电力变压器的故障传播过程进行了分析,小世界网络的拓扑结构特性能够很好地描述复杂设备故障的发展过程,基于小世界网络理论分析了电力变压器网络的拓扑结构特性,研究了电力变压器故障模式间的故障传播机理,构建了故障发展模型,并采用蚁群算法求取最高风险故障传播路径,获得了与实际故障统计相一致的结果,为电力变压器的风险评估提供了重要依据。

We focused on finding the highest fault propagation path of power transformer in order to provide the basis for risk assessment and preventive maintenance decision-making. The fault propagation of power transformer was analyzed from complex network viewpoint. Since the fault development of power transformer was complex and the topology characteristics of small-world network could perfectly describe the fault development of complex power equipment,the topology characteristics of power transformer was analyzed and the fault propagation mechanism of power transformer failure modes was researched based on the small-world theory. Subsequently,the fault propagation model was established. We applied the ant colony algorithm to solve the problem of finding optimal path. It is found that the fault propagation path with highest risk is in accord with the result reflected by the statistics. This method provides an important basis for risk assessment of power transformer.