全球复苏分化、政策退出博弈与中国宏观政策的选择

Divergence in Global Recovery,Policy Exit Gaming and China’s Macro Policy Choices

尽管全球经济已经触底,未来二次探底可能性也很小,但各主要经济体的复苏前景存在明显差异,这些差异将对全球刺激政策的退出尤其是中国的政策退出产生重要影响。包括中国在内的一些新兴经济体至少在同比意义上实现了V型复苏,但这些国家还无力带动发达经济体快速复苏,对照历史上主要危机演化,美欧日经济总体上还要在底部停留较长时间。复苏的不同步要求各国的政策退出也有先有后,然而,发达国家之间以及发达国家与新兴经济体之间的复杂的政策博弈,将使得全球政策退出滞后于经济周期的要求。中国经济已率先复苏,但退出政策受到发达经济体的诸多牵制,宏观政策和经济周期面临更大的错配风险。尽管未来一段时间中国的通胀仍相对稳定,但从宏观审慎管理的角度,政策当局应更早更有力度地启用多种退出手段,包括利率汇率等价格型手段。

The global economy as a whole has bottomed out and the possibility of a double dip is slim. However,the recovery prospects of main economies are varied,which would have great impacts on the global exit from stimulus,especially China’s exit policy. Some new emerging economies,including China,have achieved a V-shaped recovery,at least in terms of year-on-year growth,but they remain unable to bring about a fast recovery of developed economies. Based on the major crisis evolution tracks in the history,the US,Europe and Japan could be staying in the trough for quite a long period of time. The varied pace of recovery means the exit policies of those countries should not be carried out simultaneously. However,the complicated policy gaming between the developed countries and between the developed and developing countries will make the global exit fall behind demand of business cycles. China has led the world to recover,but its exit policymaking has been pinned down by the developed economies and the risk of misalignment between macro policies and business cycle is growing. Although China’s inflation would remain stable in the coming months,seen from the perspective of cautious macro management,the authorities should take varieties of forceful exit measures as soon as possible,including price tools,such as interest rate and exchange rate policies.