中国的货币政策与汇率政策均应及时调整

Timely Adjustment in China’s Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Policy

2010年第1季度中国总需求已经出现过热迹象,但全年增长形势仍具不确定性,关键在于房地产投资与净出口增速如何变动。综合食品价格、输入型通胀压力以及基期效应的分析,CPI同比增速在7、8月份可能超过4%,从而提高3季度加息的概率。从流动性、供求缺口与通胀预期来看,2季度房价仍有上涨压力,下半年房价走势不确定。4月份新出台的政府调控措施短期内将导致量价齐跌,但如果低利率与宽信贷的格局不改变,房价中期内仍有上涨空间。人民币汇率存在一定低估,汇率形成机制弹性化成为当务之急。最可能的升值方式仍是小幅渐进升值,但同时应控制热钱流入。2010年第2季度是人民币汇率弹性化的最佳时间窗口。

There are already signs of overheating in China’s aggregate demand in Q1 2010,but uncertainties still exist regarding the growth prospects for the whole of this year. The key issues are the trends of property investment and trade surplus growth. Taking into consideration such factors as food prices,imported inflationary pressure and base effect,this article argues that China’s CPI growth y-o-y might surpass 4% in July or August,and PBoC might raise interest rates in Q3. From the perspective of liquidity,supply-demand gap and inflation expectation,there is still pressure pushing up property price in Q2 while the trend is uncertain in the 2nd half of this year. The real estate-targeted dampening measures taken by the Chinese government in mid-April may drive down both property transaction volumes and prices,but if the low interest rate and loose bank lending continue unchanged,property prices may rise again in the middle term. Meanwhile,the RMB is undervalued and the floating of RMB exchange rate should become the top priority. The most possible scenario is that the RMB gradually appreciates while the Chinese government should control 'hot money' inflow. Q2 of 2010 offers a precise time window for Chinese government to make RMB exchange rate regime more flexible.