国际金融危机与美国的单极地位--当前美国的国家实力、国内制度和国际战略调整

International Financial Crisis and American Unipolar Status:Contemporary State of U.S.National Power,Domestic Institution and International Strategic Adjustment

国内政治经济制度和国家从国际秩序中获益性将决定一定时期内该大国的兴衰趋势。在分析国际金融危机与美国的单极地位时,作者在考察国际金融危机对主要大国和地区所造成的冲击时发现,美国所受到的冲击相对较轻,而它的综合国力、失业率和国际竞争力指标都仍然领先,即便从短期效应来说,国际金融危机致使美国实力衰落的观点值得质疑。从应对金融危机的经验和美国社会的人口结构等因素来看,美国的优势仍然存在。在短期内,整个美国社会并没有因为金融危机而出现大的动荡。从长期来说,国际金融危机可能会促进美国国内政治和经济制度的改良,也有利于奥巴马政府调整国际战略,避免承担过多的国际责任和过度扩张,进而重振美国在国际秩序中的领导地位。在这些调整过程中,如果奥巴马政府采取了一种稳健的方式,坚持自由市场的基本原则和分权制衡的政治传统,经历了国际金融危机的美国霸权及其单极地位相反有可能会进一步得到加强。

The author suggests that there are two factors decisively contributing to the rise and fall of great powers,namely,its domestic political and economic institutions and its status in international order.When analyzing the relationship between international financial crisis and American unipolar status,the author finds that the US might be a relative gainer with its comprehensive national power,unemployment rate and global competitiveness still ahead of others,due to its experiences of tackling financial crisis as well as the population structure of American society.During the global financial crisis,there was no great social instability in the United States.Thus,even if we look at the short-run effects,it should be in doubt that the American power is declining because of the crisis.In the long run,this crisis will improve the American political and economic system,and help Obama administration adjust its international strategy,avoid too much international burden and overstretch, and renew the American leadership in the international order.And it should be noted that Obama administration has been promoting the reform through a moderate way, that is to say,sticking to the liberal market principle and the check and balance tradition. The author concludes that American hegemony and its unipolar status might be further enhanced after the international financial crisis.