发展战略与经济增长

Development Strategy and Economic Growth

在内生产业结构模型基础上建立一个Ramsey问题模型,研究政府发展战略对于产业结构升级以及经济发展绩效的影响,结果表明:产业结构内生于要素禀赋结构,且随着要素禀赋结构的升级而升级。政府偏离要素禀赋结构优先发展重工业,将导致资源配置的扭曲和经济发展的低效。所以,经济发展的核心问题,不是产业结构升级,而是要素禀赋结构升级。适当的产业政策可以促进产业结构升级,但其有效性也受到要素禀赋结构的制约,且应尽可能是整体性、宏观性和跨行业的。

Based on the model of endogenous industry structure,this paper constructs a Ramsey problem model to examine the impact of the government's development strategy on industry structural upgrading and economic performance.Our research shows that industry structure is endogenous to factor endowment structure and that its upgrading proceeds in tandem with the latter.The fact that the government is deviating from factor endowment structure and giving priority to the development of heavy industry will lead to resource misallocation and less efficient economic development.Therefore what is crucial to economic development lies not in the upgrading of industrial structure,but that of factor endowment structure.Advisable industrial policies,which should be agnostic about particular industries,may promote the upgrading of industrial structure,but their effectiveness remains subject to the structure of factor endowments.