通胀内在持续性与通胀目标制在中国的适用性

The Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in China and the Applicability of Inflation Targeting Regime in the Country

目前,国内关于引入通货膨胀目标制这一国际经验的意见存在分歧。本文利用菲利普斯曲线估计中国通货膨胀的内在持续性,发现中国的通货膨胀是具有高度的内在持续性的,反通货膨胀政策受到这一内在持续性的限制。对于中国的实际情况而言,最优的反通货膨胀政策是先遏制住通货膨胀率的快速攀升,而不是急于在短期内降低通货膨胀率,操之过急的做法不仅不利于维持宏观经济的稳定,还有产生持续的经济衰退的危险。因此,通货膨胀目标制这一国际经验目前在中国并不适用。

There currently is a concern whether China should import the inflation targeting regime from foreign countries. In this paper, the aunthor estimates the Phillips curve to estimate the intrinsic inflation persistence in China and find that China＇ s inflation rate is highly persistent. The anti-inflation policy should be restricted by such persistence. In this case, the optimal anti-inflation policy should first stop the acceleration of inflation rather than lower the inflation rate immediately. An immediate monetary contraction is not good for macroeconomic stability and may cause continuous recession Therefore, inflation targeting as a widespread international practice is not suitable for China.