基于灰色预测模型的2008北京旅游人口预测分析

Population Prediction of Beijing 2008 Based on The Grey Model

在分析北京市统计局2001至2006年入境旅游人口以及国内旅游人口统计数据的基础上,为研究每年同期旅游人数的变化规律,构造以每年3至12月的数据为分量的年数据向量.应用基于双谐样条插值算法对原异常数据进行处理,采用灰色预测模型及回归模型对2008北京旅游人口进行预测分析,得出2008年每月来京旅游人口数量,为政府制定人口相关政策提供参考.

This article bases on the 2001-2006 foreign and domestic tourist population of Beijing offered by BeiJing Statistics Bureau. In order to study the rule of the change of the tourist population in the corresponding periods, we have constructed the vectors of population year by year. Each contains datas from March to December in the same year. Based on the rithmetic of Biharmonic Spline Interpolation, we have made for a loss for the data and adopted the Grey Model and the Regress Model to predict and analyse the tourist population of Beijing in 2008. The total population will be useful for the government of Beijing to establish relative population policy.