利率平滑化与产出、物价波动——一个基于泰勒规则的研究

Interest-rate Smoothing and the Fluctuation of Output and Price——A Framework of Taylor Rule

以我国的货币政策数据对泰勒规则及其扩展模型进行实证检验和验证泰勒规则在我国的适用性。在此基础上,运用泰勒规则对我国现行利率政策进行研究。发现我国的利率调节存在着小心试错,力求平滑化的操作倾向,利率调节幅度总体上小于泰勒规则值,因此在实现宏观经济稳定上力度不足。这在一定程度上导致了我国宏观经济政策当局在面临重大宏观调控需要时,更多地运用数量控制的货币政策手段,而非利率政策,这种做法一方面阻滞了经济体制转轨进程,另一方面也增加了宏观调控的政策成本。加强对利率政策工具的理论研究,使利率更好地针对通货膨胀和产出变化做出调整,对于提高我国的宏观调控质量具有重要意义。

This paper employs the historical analysis and the reaction method to conduct an empirical analysis of China＇s monetary policy in the framework of Taylor rule. By comparing the rule value with the actual value of the interest-rate, we show that the actual value deviates from rule value when the policy operation lags behind the request of the development of economic situation. This is an unstable monetary policy regime and will hinder the process of economic system transformation. China＇s monetary policy should be transformed from an unstable rule to a stable one. We should actively carry interest-rate reform forward and set up the monetary policy regime with the interest-rate of money market such as the one whieh Taylor rule shows us.