转型期中国工业全要素生产率与效率——基于细分行业的随机前沿模型分析

Total Factor Productivity and Efficiency of Industrial Growth in the Transition of China

本文利用1996-2007年我国工业36个细分行业的面板数据,通过建立随机前沿模型,测算了转型期我国工业及其细分行业的全要素生产率,以及其分解要素的波动情况。实证研究表明,1996-2007年我国TFP平均为4.76%,并呈逐步上升趋势;TFP提高的主要原因是技术进步,平均来说,TFP增长的85.50%来源于技术进步的贡献;因为技术效率的提高使TFP平均每年提高了0.94个百分点;资源配置效率的提高对TFP的贡献年平均0.52个百分点,并有较大的波动;而因为规模总报酬递减的影响,TFP每年反而下降了0.78个百分点。通过经济增长来源分析,我国工业经济增长由主要靠资本驱动逐渐向靠技术创新驱动转变,转型期经济增长方式已表现为集约型。

Based on the panel data of 36 industrial sub-sectors in China from 1996 to 2007,this paper employs the stochastic frontier production function to measure total factor productivity and its source factor＇s fluctuations of industrial sectors.The empirical research show that industrial average TFP is 4.76%,and it escalates in 1996-2007.Technical progress is main momentum to the TFP growth,technical progress＇s contribution reaches 85.50%.Technical efficiency contributes average 0.94 percentage points to the TFP growth a year.Allocative efficiency contributes average 0.52 percentage points to the TFP growth.The decline in scale efficiency reduces the TFP growth by 0.78 percentage points on average. The analysis to source of industrial growth shows that economy growth model is intensive in the period of transition.