大型复杂产品可靠性评估的单调约束模型

Monotone restriction model of large-scale complex product reliability evaluation

大型复杂产品的试验样本通常呈现多阶段小子样特性.因此,为减少单阶段样本量较少所导致的评估误差,提出以添加前提约束的方法来利用产品全阶段试验数据.首先推导出可靠性参数在单调约束条件下的通用分布函数;然后给出常用指标任务可靠度和MTBF的一种近似计算方法;最后给出一例实际数据的计算结果.由于约束简单且可以求得可靠性参数的分布函数,该方法的工程适应性强于传统的AMSAA模型,并能获得Duane模型无法给出的区间估计.

The test data of large-scale complex product usually presents small sample and multi-phase characteristic. Therefore,to reduce the evaluation error caused by small sample of one phase,a constraint condition is introduced to products reliability evaluation,thus the multi-phase test data can be used.Under such constraint condition,the reliability parameter is considered as a random variable and the reliability parameter distribution function is given firstly.Then an approximate calculation method for mission reliability and mean time between failure（MTBF） is presented.Finally,the result based on actual data is shown.Since the constraint condition is brief and the reliability parameter distribution function can be achieved,this method is more applicable for engineering than traditional AMSAA-Model（army materiel systems analysis activity model）,and the reliability interval estimation can be gained which can not be obtained from Duane-model.