基于ARMA模型的财政教育投资时间序列分析

NON-STEADY TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS OF FINANCE INVESTMENT IN EDUCATION BASED ON ARMA MODEL

以1991—2008年的财政教育投资数据为依据,通过对数据进行平稳化、零均值化处理,并利用序列的自相关、偏自相关性质,建立序列的合理时间序列模型,最后利用模型进行了预测,预测结果比较切合实际.

Investment in education is an important indicator for development of education,its growth follows immanent rule.This article accords data from 1991 to 2008,via stationary and zero-mean,then utilizes character of autocorrelation and partial correlation to establish an appropriate time-series model.The model can forcast future finance investment in education.