次贷危机对我国经济的传导机制分析

The Analysis on the Transmission Mechanism of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis to China's Economy

美国的次级抵押贷款危机自爆发以来渐渐升级为一场系统性的金融危机,而且呈现向全球扩散、向实体经济渗透之势。无论从规模、影响程度还是持续时间上,本次全球性的金融危机已经超过了历史上任何一次,反思次贷危机背后的深刻根源、研究发现其扩散传导机制,寻求解决危机的根本之道成为全球金融界关注的焦点。本文用格兰杰因果检验的方法,从金融市场联动、国民经济发展、对美元的汇率、出口增速等方面分析了次贷危机对我国的扩散和影响机制。

Since the subprime mortgage crisis broken in United States,it had gradually upgraded to a systemic financial,crisis,which appeared the trend of spread all of the world,and to the real economy.In terms of size,duration or extent of the impact on the global financial,crisis is more serious than any time in history.To reflect on the deep-rooted causes behind the crisis,and to found out the transmission mechanism,as well as to seek a solution to the crisis has become a fundamental focus in the global financial circle.In this paper,it adopts the Granger causality test method to analyze the spread and impact system to China＇ economy from the following aspects：linkage from the financial markets,economic development,exchange rate and export growth rate.