关于目前经济危机的不确定性问题

A Study on the Uncertainties in the Current Economic Crisis

目前经济危机存在着多种不确定性:政府债务的不确定性、失业问题的不确定性、虚拟经济的不确定性、实体经济的不确定性和刺激经济政策进退的不确定性等。现代经济危机包括金融危机、财政危机和社会危机三个阶段。政府的巨额债务和赤字表明金融危机在一定程度上转向了财政危机。持续的高失业率很难解决,而这一点很可能形成社会危机。目前看,第一阶段基本过去,而第二、第三阶段何时结束,仍很不确定。而这些不确定性主要根源于三大经济规律,即世界经济政治发展不平衡规律、世界货币流通规律和国际价值规律。本文分析了中国面临的新问题,并在外贸、外资、人民币汇率和人民币国际化等问题上,提出了相应的对策。

There exist various uncertainties in the current economic crisis, including the uncertainty in the government debt, uncertainty in the unemployment, uncertainty in the virtual economy, uncertainty in the real economy, uncertainty in the advancing and regressing of stimulus economic policies and so on. Modern economic crisis consists of three phases: financial crisis, fiscal crisis and social crisis. A huge amount of government debt and deficit indicates that financial crisis has to a certain extent been transformed to fiscal crisis. Persisting high rate of unemployment can hardly be relieved, which is quite likely to cause social crisis. Judged by the current situation, the first phase has basically passed, while it is quite uncertain when the second and third phases will end. However, these uncertainties originate in the three economic laws, that is, law of uneven world economic and political development, law of the world circulation of money and law of international value. This article analyzes the new problems China is facing with and provides suggestions for dealing with problems in respect of foreign trade, foreign investment, exchange rate of RMB and the internationalization of RMB.