高速公路清障持续时间预测分析

Prediction of Obstacle Clearance Duration of Freeway

高速公路清障是高速公路管理部门对社会服务的重点内容之一。文中采用概率分布分析及逐步回归分析法对高速公路清障持续时间预测问题进行了研究。通过概率分布分析,否定了清障持续时间一般服从的3种分布模型。在此基础上用方差分析找出对事件持续时间具有显著的影响因素,并用逐步回归法确定了高速公路清障持续时间预测的多元线性回归模型。经检验,预测值与实际值的误差80%在30 min以内,预测结果基本能够反应真实的情况。

The obstacle clearance of freeway is one of the very important social services for the freeway management.In this paper,the obstacle clearance duration prediction of freeway is studied by the probability distribution analysis and stepwise regression analysis.First,it is found that the distribution analysis for the obstacle clearance of freeway durations does not conform to any of three distributions.Then,the marked influence factors of incident duration are determined by analysis of variance（ANOVA）,and stepwise regression analysis is used to establish a multiple linear regression model for the prediction of freeway obstacle clearance duration.The test result indicates that 80% of the error of the prediction values and factual values is 30 min.Therefore,the test result can generally represent the real situation.