基于LMDI分解方法的中国特大城市客运能源消耗研究

Research on the Change of Motorized Passenger Transport Energy Consumption in Selected Chinese Cities Based on LMDI Method

城市客运交通能源消耗受城镇人口增长、居民出行特征变化等因素的制约。定量分解分析以上各个因素的综合影响,将有助于了解影响城市交通能源消耗变化的主导因素,以及各个因素的影响程度,即贡献率。作者根据LMDI方法,构建分析我国特大城市客运能源消耗的分解模型,并应用北京、上海和广州的数据实证分析。结果表明:多数因素都不同程度导致了城市客运交通能耗的增长。

The change of urban passenger transport energy consumption is influenced by many factors, such as urbanization rate, resident travel behaviors etc. To better understand the dominant factors that influence the energy consumption, it is important to analyze the driving force quantitatively. Here, a new decomposition model based on LMDI method is developed to analyze China＇s passenger transport energy in mega-cities. Empirical analysis of the model is applied to Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. The results show that most factors lead to the growth of urban passenger transport energy consumption in various degrees.